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Prediction for CME (2026-05-26T22:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-05-26T22:36Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46419/-1
CME Note: Very faint partial halo CME observed in SOHO LASCO C2 and GOES CCOR-1, also in LASCO C3 obscured heavily by the pylon (and difficult to observe outside running difference imagery in all). STEREO A COR2 in a data gap at this time. The source may be some field line movement and breaking loops observed around 2026-05-26T21:39Z to the SE only in GOES SUVI 284, tracing to an approximate source on-disk around S30E53 (and could vary slightly, due to the brightness of this cluster of regions in SUVI 284).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-05-30T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/46425/1
Model Inputs:
2026-05-26T22:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-54.0, Lat.=-21.0, Speed=330.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2026-05-27T09:30Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-05-30T18:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260527_093000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260527_093000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260527_093000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260527_093000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260527_093000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260527_093000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260527_093000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260527_093000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260527_093000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260527_093000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260527_093000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260527_093000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260527_093000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260527_093000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260527_093000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260527_093000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260527_093000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 88.03 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2026-05-27T01:58Z

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